Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions

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XiContentsForeword xvPreface xixChapter 1 Fundamental Considerations in Business forecasting Getting Real about Uncertainty (Paul Goodwin) What Demand Planners Can Learn from the Stock Market (Charles K. Re Corr) Toward a More Precise Definition of Forecastability (John Boylan) Forecastability: A New Method (Sean Schubert) Forecast Errors and Their Avoidability (Steve Morlidge) The Perils of Benchmarking (Michael Gilliland) Can We Obtain Valid Benchmarks from Published Surveys of Forecast Accuracy? (Stephan Kolassa) Defining Demand for Demand forecasting (Michael Gilliland) Using forecasting to Steer the Business : Six Principles (Steve Morlidge) The Beauty of forecasting (David Orrell) 76Chapter 2 Methods of Statistical forecasting Confessions of a Pragmatic Forecaster (Chris Chatfield) New Evidence

Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb has drawn popular attention to the issue of unforecastability of complex systems, and made “black swan” a part of the vernacular. Their article, published in the International Journal of Forecasting (2009), speaks to the …

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