Chapter 1

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Chapter 1Basic statisticsStatistics are used forecasts estimate the probability that it will rain tomorrow based on a variety ofatmospheric measurements. Our email clients estimate the probability that incoming emailis spam using features found in the email message. By querying a relatively small group ofpeople, pollsters can gauge the pulse of a large population on a variety of issues, includingwho will win an election. In fact, during the 2012 US presidential election, Nate Silversuccessfully aggregated such polling data to correctly predict the election outcome of all 50states!1On top of this, the past decade or so has seen an explosion in the amount of data we collectacross many fields.

Chapter 1 Basic statistics Statistics are used everywhere. Weather forecasts estimate the probability that it will rain tomorrow based on a variety of

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