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Ofby Richards J. Heuer, for the STUDY of INTELLIGENCECentral Intelligence Agency1999iiiThis book was prepared primarily for the use of US Government officials, and the format, coverage, and content were designed to meet their spe-cific requirements. Because this book is now out of print, this Portable Document File (PDF) is formatted for two-sided printing to facilitate desktop publishing. It may be used by US Government agencies to make copies for govern-ment purposes and by non-governmental organizations to make copies for educational purposes. Because this book may be subject to copyright restriction, copies may not be made for any commercial book will be available at statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed in the main text of this book are those of the author.

complex problems that typically involve ambiguous information, multi-ple players, and fluid circumstances. Such multi-faceted estimative chal-lenges have proliferated in the turbulent post-Cold War world. Heuer’s message to analysts can be encapsulated by quoting two sentences from Chapter 4 of this book:

  Multi