The Forecasting Dictionary

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Principles of Forecasting : A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, J. Scott Armstrong (ed.): Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001. The Forecasting Dictionary Updated: October 23, 2000 J. Scott Armstrong The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia PA 19104 "But glory doesn't mean "a nice knock-down argument," Alice objected. "When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said, in a rather scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean neither more nor less." "The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things.

PRINCIPLES OF FORECASTING 4 AIC (Akaike Information Criterion). A goodness of fit measure that penalizes model complexity (based on the