Transcription of 5. Scenario Analysis: A Tool for Task Managers - …
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5. Scenario Analysis: A Tool for Task Managers - …
625. Scenario analysis : A Toolfor Task ManagersJonathan N. MaackScenario analysis has been used by the privatesector for the last 25 years to manage risk anddevelop robust strategic plans in the face of anuncertain future. Its success in helping firmsmanage large capital investments and changecorporate strategy has made it a standard toolof medium- to long-term strategic have helped public sector agenciesplan for population growth and regionaldevelopment, state transportation investments,and the distribution of landfills. In the develop-ing world, scenarios have been used to high-light the opportunities, risks, and trade-offs innational policy analysis is different from the high,medium, and low cases for lending consideredas part of Country Assistance Strategy (CAS).High, medium, and low scenarios look atdifferent rates of progress along a path that isbased on a single set of projections. Scenarioanalysis focuses on the areas of greatest uncer-tainty for a country or an operation, systemati-cally develops several plausible alternativefuture environments in which the operationmight be implemented, and determines howthey would affect its success.
63 Scenario Analysis: A Tool for Task Managers Monitoring progress and scanning changes in the environment. Scenario analysis can help establish indicators that create a …
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