5. Scenario Analysis: A Tool for Task Managers - …

625. Scenario analysis : A Toolfor Task ManagersJonathan N. MaackScenario analysis has been used by the privatesector for the last 25 years to manage risk anddevelop robust strategic plans in the face of anuncertain future. Its success in helping firmsmanage large capital investments and changecorporate strategy has made it a standard toolof medium- to long-term strategic have helped public sector agenciesplan for population growth and regionaldevelopment, state transportation investments,and the distribution of landfills. In the develop-ing world, scenarios have been used to high-light the opportunities, risks, and trade-offs innational policy analysis is different from the high,medium, and low cases for lending consideredas part of Country Assistance Strategy (CAS).

62 5. Scenario Analysis: A Tool for Task Managers Jonathan N. Maack Scenario analysis has been used by the private sector for the last 25 years to manage risk and

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