Transcription of AESO 2021 Long-term Outlook
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AESO 2021 Long-term Outlook
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFTJUNE 2021 AESO 2021 Long-term OutlookAESO 2021 Long-term OutlookTable of EXECUTIVE SUMMARY BACKGROUND Purpose Being Served by the AESO s Long-term Outlook Stakeholder Engagement Long-term Outlook SCENARIOS Long-term Outlook Scenarios Key Drivers and Assumptions Economic Drivers and Assumptions 4 Policy Drivers and Assumptions 6 Technology Drivers and Assumptions 9 Risks and Uncertainties Forecast Methodologies Project Inclusion Criteria 12 Load Forecasting Methodology 13 Generation Forecasting Methodology 13 DER Forecasting Methodology 13 Electric Vehicle Forecasting Methodology 16 Energy Storage Forecasting Methodology 2021 LTO RESULTS Reference Case Load Forecast Regional Load Forecast Generation Outlook Clean-Tech Scenario Load Forecast Generation Outlook Robust Global Oil and Gas Demand Scenario Load Forecast Generation Outlook 33 AESO 2021 Long-term Stagnant Global Oil and Gas Demand Scenario Load Forecast Generation Outlook ADDITIONAL INSIGHTS Additional Insights Typical Consumption Patterns System Load CO2 Emissions Resource Adequacy APPENDIX Levelized Cost of Energy Technology Specific Cost Ass
The 2021 Long-term Outlook (2021 LTO) is the Alberta Electric System Operator’s (AESO) forecast of Alberta’s load and generation requirements over the next 20 years and is used as one of many inputs to guide transmission system planning, long-term adequacy assessments, and market evaluations.
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