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An Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis - MIT …

D-4526-2 41 An Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis Prepared for the MIT System Dynamics in Education Project Under the Supervision of Dr. Jay W. Forrester by Lucia Breierova Mark Choudhari September 6, 1996 Vensim Examples added October 2001 Copyright 2001 by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Permission granted to distribute for non-commercial educational purposes 47 D-4526-2 43 Table of Contents 1. ABSTRACT 46 2. Introduction 3. EXPLORATORY EXERCISES EXPLORATION 1: LEMONADE STAND 48 EXERCISE 51 DEBRIEF 55 EXPLORATION 2: EPIDEMICS 55 EXERCISE 57 DEBRIEF 62 4. INDEPENDENT EXPLORATION: COFFEEHOUSE 62 CHOOSING PARAMETERS FOR Sensitivity Analysis 65 PERFORMING Sensitivity TESTS 65 5. CONCLUSION 66 6. SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS TO section 4 SOLUTION TO section 67 SOLUTION TO section 67 DEBRIEF 74 7. APPENDIX: MODEL DOCUMENTATION 75 LEMONADE STAND MODEL 75 EPIDEMICS MODEL 76 COFFEEHOUSE MODEL 77 48 67 44 D-4526-2 7. VENSIM EXAMPLES 81 46 D-4526-2 Abstract This paper is an Introduction to a series of papers on Sensitivity Analysis .

SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS TO SECTION 4 6.1 SOLUTION TO SECTION 4.1 67 6.2 SOLUTION TO SECTION 4.2 67 ... Introduction Sensitivity analysis is used to determine how “sensitive” a model is to changes in ... 60.00 1: 40.00 1 1 1 1 1: 20.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 Hours Figure 2: Base run of the Lemonade Stand model

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