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An Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis - MIT …

D-4526-2 41 An Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis Prepared for the MIT System Dynamics in Education Project Under the Supervision of Dr. Jay W. Forrester by Lucia Breierova Mark Choudhari September 6, 1996 Vensim Examples added October 2001 Copyright 2001 by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Permission granted to distribute for non-commercial educational purposes 47 D-4526-2 43 Table of Contents 1. ABSTRACT 46 2. Introduction 3. EXPLORATORY EXERCISES EXPLORATION 1: LEMONADE STAND 48 EXERCISE 51 DEBRIEF 55 EXPLORATION 2: EPIDEMICS 55 EXERCISE 57 DEBRIEF 62 4. INDEPENDENT EXPLORATION: COFFEEHOUSE 62 CHOOSING PARAMETERS FOR Sensitivity Analysis 65 PERFORMING Sensitivity TESTS 65 5. CONCLUSION 66 6. SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS TO SECTION 4 SOLUTION TO SECTION 67 SOLUTION TO SECTION 67 DEBRIEF 74 7.

1: Lemonade ready in stand 1: 60.00 1: 40.00 1 1 1 1 1: 20.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 Hours Figure 2: Base run of the Lemonade Stand model Now let’s assume that the demand for lemonade changes. At time 1 hour, we introduce a step increase of 5 cups in “Buying lemonade.” Figure 3 shows the resulting

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