Transcription of Assessing Risk Probability : Alternative Approaches
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Assessing Risk Probability : Alternative Approaches
2004, David Hillson & David Hulett - 1 - Originally published as a part of 2004 PMI Global Congress Proceedings Prague, Czech Republic Assessing Risk Probability : Alternative Approaches Dr David A. Hillson PMP FAPM FIRM, Director, Risk Doctor & Partners, Dr David T. Hulett, Principal, Hulett & Associates LLC, Introduction Effective risk management requires assessment of inherently uncertain events and circumstances, typically addressing two dimensions: how likely the uncertainty is to occur ( Probability ), and what the effect would be if it happened (impact). While unambiguous frameworks can be developed for impact assessment, Probability assessment is often less clear. This is particularly true for projects where data on risk Probability from previous projects is either not available or not relevant.
Originally published as a part of 2004 PMI Global Congress Proceedings – Prague, Czech Republic Alternative approaches to assessing risk probability • •
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