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Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions
Phone 250-508-5150 Todd Alexander Litman 2013-2022 You are welcome and encouraged to copy, distribute, share and excerpt this document and its ideas, provided the author is given attribution. Please send your corrections, comments and suggestions for improvement. Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions Implications for Transport Planning 3 March 2022 By Todd Litman Victoria Transport Policy Institute Waymo s self-driving taxis are a well-publicized example of Autonomous vehicles. Summary This report explores the impacts of Autonomous (also called self-driving, driverless or robotic) vehicles, and their implications for transportation planning. It investigates how quickly such vehicles are likely to develop and be deployed based on experience with previous Vehicle technologies; their likely benefits and costs; how they will affect travel activity; and their impacts on road, parking and public transit planning.
Exhibit ES-2 Autonomous Vehicle Sales, Fleet, Travel and Benefit Projections This analysis suggests that it will be at least 2045 before half of new vehicles are autonomous, and 2060 before half of the vehicle fleet is autonomous. Significantly faster deployment will require scrapping many otherwise functional vehicles that lack self-driving ...
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