Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions

XiContentsForeword xvPreface xixChapter 1 Fundamental Considerations in Business forecasting Getting Real about Uncertainty (Paul Goodwin) What Demand Planners Can Learn from the Stock Market (Charles K. Re Corr) Toward a More Precise Definition of Forecastability (John Boylan) Forecastability: A New Method (Sean Schubert) Forecast Errors and Their Avoidability (Steve Morlidge) The Perils of Benchmarking (Michael Gilliland) Can We Obtain Valid Benchmarks from Published Surveys of Forecast Accuracy? (Stephan Kolassa) Defining Demand for Demand forecasting (Michael Gilliland) Using forecasting to Steer the Business : Six Principles (Steve Morlidge) The Beauty of forecasting (David Orrell) 76 Chapter 2 Methods of Statistical forecasting Confessions of a Pragmatic Forecaster (Chris Chatfield) New Evidence on the Value of Combining Forecasts (Paul Goodwin) How to Forecast Data Containing Outliers (Eric Stellwagen) Selecting Your Statistical forecasting Level (Eric Stellwagen) When Is a Flat-line Forecast Appropriate?

tively, and not squander resources doing it. 1.1 GettinG Real aBout unCeRtainty* Paul Goodwin Business forecasters tend to rely on the familiar “point” forecast—a single number representing ... quake in the city of L’Aquila in which 309 people died. They had been involved

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