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Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions

XiContentsForeword xvPreface xixChapter 1 Fundamental Considerations in Business forecasting Getting Real about Uncertainty (Paul Goodwin) What Demand Planners Can Learn from the Stock Market (Charles K. Re Corr) Toward a More Precise Definition of Forecastability (John Boylan) Forecastability: A New Method (Sean Schubert) Forecast Errors and Their Avoidability (Steve Morlidge) The Perils of Benchmarking (Michael Gilliland) Can We Obtain Valid Benchmarks from Published Surveys of Forecast Accuracy?

Problems and Solutions. Full book available ... of 100 ± 10 units may lead to a much different planning decision than a forecast of 100 ± 100 units. In this opening article, Paul Goodwin explores the types of “probabilistic” forecasts, the academic research behind them, and the numerical and graphical displays afforded through prediction ...

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