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Chapter 1
OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2016 Issue 2 OECD 201613 Chapter 1 GENERAL ASSESSMENTOF THE MACROECONOMIC SITUATION1. GENERAL assessment OF THE MACROECONOMIC SITUATIONOECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2016 ISSUE 2 OECD 2016 PRELIMINARY VERSION14 IntroductionFor the last five years the global economy has been in a low-growth trap, with growthdisappointingly low and stuck at around 3%. Persistent growth shortfalls have weighed onfuture output expectations and thereby reduced current spending and potential outputgrowth. Global trade and investment have been weak, limiting the advances in labourproductivity and wages that are required to support sustainable consumption , fiscal policies, both implemented and proposed, could, if effective, catalyseprivate economic activity and push the global economy to a modestly higher growth rate ofaround 3 per cent by 2018. Exiting the low-growth trap depends on policy choices, as wellas on concerted and effective implementation. If, as assumed in the projections, theincoming US Administration implements a significant and effective fiscal initiative thatboosts domestic investment and consumption, global growth could increase by point in 2017 and percentage point in 2018.
OECD Economic Outlook,Volume 2016 Issue 2 © OECD 2016 13 Chapter 1 GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF THE MACROECONOMIC SITUATION
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