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Comparative analyses of expected shortfall

216 Comparative analyses of expected shortfall and value-at-risk under market stress1 Yasuhiro Yamai and Toshinao Yoshiba, Bank of Japan Abstract In this paper, we compare value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall under market stress. Assuming that the multivariate extreme value distribution represents asset returns under market stress, we simulate asset returns with this distribution. With these simulated asset returns, we examine whether market stress affects the properties of VaR and expected shortfall . Our findings are as follows. First, VaR and expected shortfall may underestimate the risk of securities with fat-tailed properties and a high potential for large losses. Second, VaR and expected shortfall may both disregard the tail dependence of asset returns.

Comparative analyses of expected shortfall and value-at-risk under market stress1 Yasuhiro Yamai and Toshinao Yoshiba, Bank of Japan Abstract In this paper, we compare value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall under market stress. Assuming that the multivariate extreme value distribution represents asset returns under market stress, we

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