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Conciliation, Counterterrorism, and Patterns of Terrorist ...
conciliation , counterterrorism , andPatterns of Terrorist ViolenceEthan Bueno de MesquitaAbstractWhat causes the increase in terrorism that reportedly often follows gov-ernment concessions? Given this pattern,why do governments ever conciliate terror-ists? I propose a model in which Terrorist organizations become more militant followingconcessions because only moderate terrorists accept them,leaving extremists in con-trol+Governments nonetheless are willing to make concessions because their coun-terterror capabilities improve because of the collusion of former terrorists+Formerterrorists undertake this collusion to insure the credibility of government promises+The model also yields hypotheses regarding the level of government investment incounterterror,when moderates accept concessions,the terms of negotiated settle-ments,the duration of Terrorist conflicts,incentives for moderate terrorists to radical-ize their followers.
A fuller understanding of the politics of terrorism would incorporate all of these factors and many others+ The model developed here does not constitute a com- plete description of the complex and nuanced politics underlying terrorism+ Rather,
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