DRIVING FORCES, UNCERTAINTIES, and FOUR …

DRIVING FORCES, uncertainties , andFOUR scenarios TO 2025 TABLE OFCONTENTSTABLE CONTENTSF oreword ..1 Introduction ..2 Five Premises for the Future ..5 Axes of Uncertainty ..9 The Scenario Framework ..13 FLUID FRONTIERS ..15 INSECURE GROWTH ..19 SHORT OF THE PROMISE ..23 BURSTING AT THE SEAMS ..27 Using the scenarios and Exploring Their Implications ..31 Conclusion ..39 Acknowledgments ..40 Appendix 1 ..41 INTERVIEWS ..41 Appendix 2 ..44 AXES OF UNCERTAINTY AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE ..44 is report is a collaborative e ort between Cisco, the global leader in Internet architec-ture, and Global Business Network (GBN), the world s foremost scenario consultancy. It is o ered as a contribution to ongoing discus-sions and e orts to harness the huge potential of Internet and IP networks to drive economic and human development around the world. is is of particular relevance to emerging-market coun-tries where the relatively low level of Internet use today reveals a wide opportunity gap in terms of economic productivity and social hope that our discussion of key DRIVING forces and uncertainties a ecting the Inter-net s evolution and the scenarios that we ve developed to illustrate how these factors may unfold by 2025 will be a useful source of insight for even the casual reader.

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