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Dynamics of the Heavy-Light Spread in the N. American Oil ...

Dynamics of the Heavy-Light Spread in the N. American Oil MarketRomain H. Lacombe and John E. ParsonsMIT Energy and Environmental Policy Workshop6-7 December 20072 The Issue North American crude oil marketszLight sweet crude : global light marketzHeavy sour crude : Mexican and Venezuelan oilzNew entrant: heavy products from Canadian oil sands Question: how do heavy and light crude prices relate?zIs there a reliable long run equilibrium? Fixed percent spreads? Fixed differentials? Other?zWhat about the Dynamics of the market? Short-run responses to shocks? Long-run shifts?3 The Data Focus on three key marker crudes: WTI, LLB and MayazWest Texas Intermediate Blend global light crude marketzLloydminster Blend Canadian heavy crude market (benchmark for Diluted Bitumen from the Athabasca oil sands)zMaya Blend Central and South Am.

3 The Data Focus on three key marker crudes: WTI, LLB and Maya zWest Texas Intermediate Blend Æglobal light crude market zLloydminster Blend ÆCanadian heavy crude market (benchmark for Diluted Bitumen from the Athabasca oil sands) zMaya Blend ÆCentral and South Am. heavy crude market Data: weekly prices for the 1998 - 2007 zWTI: NYMEX front month contract for delivery at Cushing, OK

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