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Epidemic Curves Ahead - UNC Gillings School of Global ...

volume 1, issue 5. Epidemic Curves Ahead An epidemiologist is hardly the first Outbreak pattern of spread person to call in a health emergency. The overall shape of the curve can When someone is having a heart at- CONTRIBUTORS reveal the type of outbreak (common tack, no one cries, Is there an epide- source, point source or propagated). miologist in the house? But epidemi- Author: ologists can offer to count that person A common source outbreak is one in Michelle Torok, MPH and tally him in the Yes column for which people are exposed intermit- heart attacks. And epidemiologists are tently or continuously to a common Reviewers: really good at counting!

VOLUME 1, ISSUE 5 spectively. Three days back from the peak case (the 11th) would be the 8th of the month. Counting 1 day back from the first case would also be the 8th. Thus, the hypothe-sized exposure date is the 8th of the month. Since this technique is not precise, the exposure period should be

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