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Essay Thursday, September 24, 2015 The Thucydides Trap

By Graham AllisonThursday, September 24, 2015 EssayThe Thucydides TrapWhen Barack Obama meets this week with Xi Jinping during the Chinese president s first state visit to America, one item probably won t be on their agenda: the possibility that the United States and China could find themselves at war in the next decade. In policy circles, this appears as unlikely as it would be unwise. And yet 100 years on, World War I offers a sobering reminder of man s ca-pacity for folly. When we say that war is inconceivable, is this a statement about what is possible in the world or only about what our limited minds can conceive?

Edward VII asked his prime minister why the British government was becoming so unfriendly to his nephew Kaiser Wilhelm II’s Germany, rather than keeping its eye on America, which he saw as the greater challenge. The prime minister instructed the Foreign Office’s chief Germany watch - er, Eyre Crowe, to write a memo answering

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