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Forecasting with Seasonality

Forecasting with SeasonalityDr. Ron LembkeSept 25, 2015 Forecasting with Seasonality and a trend is obviously more difficult than Forecasting for a trendor for Seasonality by itself, because compensating for both of them is more difficult than either are other methods a person could find to use for taking into account both a trend andseasonality, but the approach we will follow is the following:1. Estimate the amount of Seasonality - the seasonal relatives (or factors or indices)2. Estimate the trend (the rate demand is growing at)3. Make a straight-line prediction of future demand4.

6 Triple Exponential Smoothing When there is a trend and no seasonality, we used double exponential smoothing, in which we smoothed our estimates of the trend and the intercept in every period. It is possible to take this approach one step further, by smoothing the estimates of the seasonal relatives every time. This 5

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