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Global Conflict Trends and their Consequences

Global Conflict Trends and their Consequences *. Lars-Erik Cederman and Yannick Pengl ETH Z rich May 21, 2019. This report addresses the evolution of the main types of armed Conflict around the world. The goal is not only to study Trends , but also to pinpoint their drivers and rely on such information to generate scenarios about future developments. Such analysis is then used to study the likely Consequences of Conflict , especially with the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in mind. Simply put, the report centers on how to improve the chances of peace (SDG 16). While previous research has highlighted the importance of development for peace, our main argument is that the path to peace goes through inequality, especially among ethnic groups (SDG 10), thus confirming the analysis of the recent report on Pathways for Peace (World Bank and United Nations 2018).

3 size as counted by the number of people killed. To this effect, we rely on UCDP’s count of “battle deaths” that indicate the number of fatalities as a direct consequence of combat.3 Figure 2.

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