Transcription of Global Construction Outlook - IHS Markit
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Global Construction Outlook - IHS Markit
Global Construction Outlook Scott Hazelton Director of Construction Services Global Shock Waves The double-shock world economy . subprime crisis plus record-high oil prices Crisis status we are not out of the woods yet Global transmission of crisis no de-coupling Crisis management shifting into high gear Global inflation how big of a threat? Weaker growth in the developed economies . Means that emerging markets will eventually slow as well The risks are predominantly on the downside Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 2. The World's Economic Expansion Is Slowing 6. Real GDP. Industrial Production 5. 4. Percent change 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012. Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 3. A Two-Speed World: Real GDP Growth Developed (OECD) Countries Emerging Markets Percent Change - 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011. Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.
• Economy could be squeezed domestically and externally Monetary policy tightening has started Exports to the United States already slowing • Policy dilemma—exports and investment/inflation in different phases of cycle, and require countering policies • Without inflation risk, Beijing is willing to continue loose monetary policy to cushion the impact of sliding exports
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