Transcription of How We Would Pay for the War
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How We Would Pay for the War
18 February 2022 1/13 RaboResearch | How We Would Pay for the War RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets Michael Every Global Strategist +852 21032612 Hugo Erken Head of Netherlands Economics +31 88 72 15 260 Michiel van der Veen Economist +31 6 83134616 Ryan Fitzmaurice Senior Commodity Strategist +1 347 2241350 Stefan Vogel General Manager RaboResearch Australia & New Zealand. +44 7587 035524 How We Would Pay for the War The macro impact of Ukraine war/sanctions ContentsHow We d Pay For the on the War 1 Three War Scenarios 2 Assumption 1: Global Trade Flows 2 Assumption 2: Risk Premia 3 Assumption 3: Oil and Natural Gas Prices 4 Assumption 4: Food Prices 5 Unquantifiable Scenario C 6 Visualising the Scenarios 7 The Macroeconomic Impact 8 What Did You Pay in the War, Daddy?
In scenario B, war and effective sanctions, we increase the global investment risk premium to match the increase seen during the second Gulf War in 2003. However, not all countries would be hit equally. To simplify which would and how much, we focus ... products, such as diesel and gasoline. Importantly, nearly half of Russian crude oil exports
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