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Lecture 8a: Spurious Regression

Lecture 8a: Spurious Regression1 Old Stuff The traditional statistical theory holds when we run regressionusing (weakly or covariance ) stationary variables. For example, when we regress one stationary series onto anotherstationary series, the coefficient will be close to zero andinsignificant if the two series are independent. That is NOT the case when the two series are two independentrandom walks, which are nonstationary2 Spurious Regression The Regression is Spurious when we regress one random walk ontoanother independent random walk. It is Spurious because theregression will most likely indicate a non-existing coefficient estimate will not converge toward zero (thetrue value). Instead, in the limit the coefficient estimate willfollow a non-degenerate t value most often is typically very # by construction y and x are two independent random walksy = rep(0,n)x = rep(0,n)ey = rnorm(n)ex = rnorm(n)rhoy = 1rhox = 1for (i in 2:n) {y[i] = rhoy*y[i-1] + ey[i]x[i] = rhox*x[i-1] + ex[i]}4 Result of Spurious Regressionlm(formula = y ~ x)Coefficients:Estimate Std.

The traditional statistical theory holds when we run regression using (weakly or covariance) stationary variables. For example, when we regress one stationary series onto another stationary series, the coefficient will be close to zero and insignificant if the two series are independent.

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  Regression, Covariance

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