Transcription of Logistics 2050 A Scenario Study - DHL
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Logistics 2050 A Scenario Study - DHL
Logistics 2050A Scenario StudyDELIVERINGTOMORROWL ogistics 2050A Scenario StudyPUBLISHERD eutsche Post AG, Headquarters represented by Dr. Christof E. Ehrhart, Executive Vice President Corporate Communications 53250 Bonn, GermanyPROJECT DIRECTORDr. Jan Dietrich M ller,Corporate Communications, Deutsche Post AGPROJECT MANAGEMENT AND EDITORIAL OFFICEJ ohannes Oppolzer,Corporate Communications, Deutsche Post AGART DIRECTIONKai KullenSCENARIO PROCESS AND REALIZATIONZ_punkt The Foresight Company, CologneCOVER IMAGEA drian FrutigerEDITORIAL SUPPORTKeir Bonine, Communication Resources bvbaTRANSLATIONAnke BrysonPRINT COORDINATIONM anfred T. Rehberg, Williams Lea GmbH1. Edition February 2012 Deutsche Post AG, Bonn, GermanyISBN 978-3-920269-54-2 To expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect. Oscar Wilde, 1854 1900 Irish poet, novelist, and playwrightContentsImpressions 8 Introduction 10 Executive Summary 121 Inception 22 On Looking into the Futures 22 by Professor James Allen Dator Winning in an Uncertain Future Through Scenario Planning 27 by Peter Schwartz 2 Imagination 34 The Project 34 The Futures 36 Scenario 1: Untamed Economy Impending Collapse 36 Scenario 2: Mega-efficiency in Megacities 50 Scenario 3: Customized Lifestyles 66 Scenario 4: Paralyzing Protectionism 80 Scenario 5: Global Resilience Local Adaptation 92 The Methodology: Taking a Closer Look 10
Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study 9 4 “When5 frequent catastrophes lead to a paradigm shift away from efficiency maximization to vulnerability mitigation
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