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Macroeconomic Default Modeling and Stress …

Macroeconomic Default Modeling and StressTesting Dietske Simons and Ferdinand RolwesDe Nederlandsche BankThis paper applies a Macroeconomic -based model for esti-mating probabilities of Default . The first part of the paperfocuses on the relation between Macroeconomic variables andthe Default behavior of Dutch firms. A convincing relation-ship with GDP growth and oil price and, to a lesser extent,the interest and exchange rate exists. The second part of thepaper assesses the Default behavior based on a Stress scenarioof two consecutive quarters of zero GDP growth as required bythe Basel II framework.

Macroeconomic Default Modeling and Stress Testing∗ Dietske Simons and Ferdinand Rolwes De Nederlandsche Bank This paper applies a …

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  Macroeconomics, Modeling, Stress, Default, Macroeconomic default modeling and stress

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