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Marginal Effects in Probit Models: Interpretation and Testing

ECON 452* -- NOTE 15: Marginal Effects in Probit Models Abbott ECON 452* -- NOTE 15 Marginal Effects in Probit Models: Interpretation and Testing This note introduces you to the two types of Marginal Effects in Probit models: Marginal index Effects , and Marginal probability Effects . It demonstrates how to calculate these Effects for both continuous and categorical explanatory variables. 1. Interpreting Probit Coefficients A Generic Probit Model The conventional formulation of a binary dependent variable model assumes that an unobserved (or latent) dependent variable is generated by a classical linear regression model of the form *iY iikk2i21i10iTi*iuXXXuxY+ ++ + + =+ =L (1) where: *iY = a continuous real-valued index variable for observation i that is unobservable, or latent; Tix = , a 1 K row vector of regressor values for )XXX1(ik2i1iL observation i; = , a K 1 column vector of regression coefficients; Tk210)( L Tix = a 1 1 scalar called the index function for observation i; iu = an iid random error term for observation i.

Xi1, Xi2 and Xi3 are continuous explanatory variables Di is a binary (or dummy) explanatory variable defined such that Di = 1 if observation i exhibits some attribute, = 0 otherwise. • The index function is: 4 i3 5 i 6 i i3 2 0 1 i1 2 i2 3 i2 T xi β =β +βX +β X +βX +β X +βD +βD X ♦ Xi1 enters the index function linearly.

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