Transcription of Measuring Geopolitical Risk - Matteo Iacoviello
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Measuring Geopolitical Risk - Matteo Iacoviello
American Economic Review 2022, 112(4): 1194 1225. Measuring Geopolitical Risk . By Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello *. We present a news-based measure of adverse Geopolitical events and associated risks . The Geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the two world wars, at the beginning of the Korean War, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and after 9/11. Higher Geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment and employment and is associated with higher disas- ter probability and larger downside risks . The adverse consequences of the GPR index are driven by both the threat and the realization of adverse Geopolitical events.
grateful for the support from the GRUV (Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility network at the Federal Reserve ) Board and for the help from the staff of the Federal Reserve Board Research Library. We are grateful to the editor and four referees for their helpful and constructive comments. Andrew Kane, Bethel Cole-Smith, Charlotte Singer,
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