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Output gap measurement: judgement and …
Output gap measurement : judgement and uncertainty Jamie Murray Office for Budget Responsibility July 2014. Abstract This paper considers the appropriate definition of the Output gap for the purposes of examining the sustainability of the public finances and the uncertainties to which Output gap estimates are subject. A range of estimation methods are presented and it is shown that Output gap uncertainty is substantial in the UK. Revisions owing to the arrival of new data are on average of the same magnitude as the Output gap itself. uncertainty arising from data revisions is found to make a smaller contribution. Model uncertainty is pervasive. uncertainty about the Output gap carries over to measures of structural borrowing. Since no single estimation method is likely to be reliable at all times, it is suggested that a wide range of evidence should be considered when reaching a judgement about spare capacity and the cyclically adjusted fiscal position. I am grateful for helpful comments from Steve Nickell, Andy King, Tom Pybus, Dan Hanson, Andrea Silberman and members of the OBR's Advisory Panel.
Output gap measurement: judgement and uncertainty Jamie Murray . Office for Budget Responsibility . July 2014 . Abstract This paper considers the appropriate definition of the output gap for the purposes of examining the
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