Transcription of Overview of Economic Forecasting Methods
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Overview of Economic Forecasting Methods
1 Overview of Economic Forecasting Methods : Forecasting Techniques Causal Methods Time Series Methods Qualitative Methods Regression Analysis Multiple Regression Moving Average Exponential Smoothing Trend & Seasonal Decomposit ion Delphi Method Jury of Executive Opinion Sales Force Composite Consumer Market Survey Box-Jenkins ARIMA Qualitative Regression Logit, Probit 2a. Causal (Multivariate) Forecasting Methods : Regression Methods Make projections of the future by modeling the causal relationship between a series and other series. Can use time series or cross-sectional data to forecast. Yt = f (Xt) or Yt = f (X1t, .., Xkt, Y2t, ..,Y1k) Methods : Simple or Multiple models System equation models Seeming unrelated models b. Univariate Forecasting Methods or Time series Methods Using the past, internal patterns in data to forecast the future. Yt+1 = f (Yt, Yt-1, Yt-2, Yt-3) Methods : Moving average Smoothing and Exponential smoothing Decomposition: Seasonal and trend decomposition ARIMA (box-Jenkins) c.
1 Overview of Economic Forecasting Methods: Forecasting Techniques Causal Methods Time Series Methods Qualitative Methods Regression Analysis Multiple
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