Overview of Economic Forecasting Methods

1 Overview of Economic Forecasting Methods : Forecasting Techniques Causal Methods Time Series Methods Qualitative Methods Regression Analysis Multiple Regression Moving Average Exponential Smoothing Trend & Seasonal Decomposit ion Delphi Method Jury of Executive Opinion Sales Force Composite Consumer Market Survey Box-Jenkins ARIMA Qualitative Regression Logit, Probit 2a. Causal (Multivariate) Forecasting Methods : Regression Methods Make projections of the future by modeling the causal relationship between a series and other series. Can use time series or cross-sectional data to forecast. Yt = f (Xt) or Yt = f (X1t, .., Xkt, Y2t, ..,Y1k) Methods : Simple or Multiple models System equation models Seeming unrelated models b. Univariate Forecasting Methods or Time series Methods Using the past, internal patterns in data to forecast the future.

7 Seasonal Patterns: Seasonal series result from events that are periodic and recurrent (e.g., monthly, quarterly, changes recurring each year). Common seasonal influences are climate, human habits, holidays, repeating promotions, and so on.

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