Transcription of Probability and Random Processes - t U
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Probability and Random Processes - t U
Asst. Prof. Dr. Conditional Probability1 Probability and Random ProcessesECS 315 Office Hours: BKD 3601-7 Monday 14:00-16:00 Wednesday14:40-16:002 Disease Testing3 Suppose we have a diagnostic test for a particular diseasewhich is 99% accurate. A person is picked at Random and tested for the disease. The test gives a positive result. Q1: What is the Probability that the person actually has the disease? Natural answer: 99% because the test gets it right 99% of the accurate test?4 Two kinds of error If you use this test on many persons withthe disease, the test will indicate correctly that those persons have disease 99% of the time. False negativerate = 1% = If you use this test on many persons withoutthe disease, the test will indicate correctly that those persons do not have disease 99% of the time. False positiverate = 1% = 00 1 Disease Testing: The Question5 Suppose we have a diagnostic test for a particular diseasewhich is 99% accurate. A person is picked at Random and tested for the disease.
A person is picked at random and tested for the disease. The test gives a positive result. Q1: What is the probability that the person actually has the disease? Natural answer: 99% because the test gets it right 99% of the times.
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