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Probability, Conditional Probability & Bayes Rule

Probability , Conditional Probability & Bayes RuleA FAST REVIEW OF DISCRETE Probability (PART 2)CIS 391-Intro to AI2 CIS 391-Intro to AI3 Discrete random variables A random variable can take on one of a set of different values, each with an associated Probability . Its value at a particular time is subject to random variation. Discreterandom variables take on one of a discrete (often finite) range of values Domain values must be exhaustiveand mutually exclusive For us, random variables will have a discrete, countable (usually finite) domain of arbitrary values. Mathematical statistics usually calls these random elements Example: Weather is a discrete random variable with domain {sunny, rain, cloudy, snow}. Example: A Boolean random variable has the domain {true,false}, CIS 391-Intro to AI4 Probability Distribution Probability distribution gives values for all possible assignments: Vector notation: Weather is one of < , , , >, where weather is one of <sunny,rain,cloudy,snow>.

By Bayes Rule If T and X are conditionally independent given C: This is a Naïve Bayes Model: All effects assumed conditionally independent given Cause C Cause X Effect 2 T Effect 1. CIS 391 - Intro to AI 24 Bayes' Rule II

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