Transcription of Probability Theory: The Logic of Science
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Probability Theory: The Logic of Science
Probability Theory: The Logic of SciencebyE. T. JaynesWayman Crow Professor of PhysicsWashington UniversitySt. Louis, MO 63130, U. S. to the Memory of Sir Harold Jeffreys,who saw the truth and preserved 1995 by Edwin T. FORWARDE. T. Jaynes died April 30, 1998. Before his death he asked me to finish and publish his bookon Probability theory . I struggled with this for some time, because there is no doubt in my mindthat Jaynes wanted this book finished. Unfortunately, most of the later Chapters, Jaynes intendedvolume 2 on applications, were either missing or incomplete and some of the early also Chaptershad missing pieces. I could have written these latter Chapters and filled the missing pieces, but if Idid so, the work would no longer belong to Jaynes; rather, it would be a Jaynes-Bretthorst hybridwith no way to tell which material came from which author.
Boolean Algebra 6 Adequate Sets of Operations 9 The Basic Desiderata 12 Comments 15 Common Language vs. Formal Logic 16 Nitpicking 18 Chapter 2 The Quantitative Rules 21 The Product Rule 21 The Sum Rule 26 Qualitative Properties 31 Numerical Values 32 Notation and Finite Sets Policy 38 Comments 39 \Subjective" vs. \Objective" 39 G odel’s ...
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