Revenue and expenditure forecasting techniques for a PER ...

Revenue and expenditure forecasting techniques for a PER Spending ANNEX 3: August 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Introduction .. 3 The Budgeting Context .. 3 2 The Nature and Process of Revenue forecasting .. 5 What Revenues to forecast .. 5 What Expenditures to forecast .. 5 The forecasting Steps .. 7 Step 1: Selection of forecast period .. 7 Step 2: Examination of data for stationarity .. 7 Step 3: Adoption of assumptions .. 7 Step 4: Selection of forecasting methods .. 8 Step 5: Evaluation of estimates .. 8 Step 6: Monitoring of outcome and comparison with forecasts .. 9 Step 7: Updating the Forecasts .. 9 3 The forecasting Methods .. 10 Qualitative and Judgement forecasting Methods .. 10 Quantitative Methods .. 11 Time Series forecasting Basic Concepts .. 12 4 Summary .. 55 LIST OF TABLES Table 3-1: Stata output of Additive Seasonal Model.

forecasts for one year ahead to forecast gross revenues or expenditures. To invest appropriately, the managers of the electricity supply, the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Health must look ahead for 20 years to forecast demand and thus must forecast revenues and expenditures in the same time frame.

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