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Seasonality

10 COVERMay 2005 ) Seasonal Trend in Heating Oil PriceHeating oil prices were least expensive in June and July. Increasedpurchases caused prices to rise until they reached their peak during theheating season from October through ) Construction of a Seasonal ChartSeasonal Charts do not show prices over a certain time period, but insteadshow price progression averaged over the course of a certain time : : Trend inHeating Oil PriceMost expensivefrom October untilJanuary(heating season)The rising price beganas early as mid-summer(initial purchases)Cheapest in June and JulyJan FebMarAprMay JunJulAugSep OctNov10310210110099989796959493929190 Dec1401301201101009080 Year #4 Year #3 Year #2 Year #1 Seasonal of aSeasonal Chart(schematic)JanFebMarAprMay JunJulAugSep OctNov DecWhat is Seasonality ?

12 COVER May 2005 www.traders-mag.com F6) Year-End Rally, Performance S&P Figure 6 shows the results of each of the last 20 year-end rallies. 15

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