Transcription of Technical Analysis Approach: part I - Purdue University
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Technical Analysis Approach: part I - Purdue University
Understanding the market Technical Analysis Approach: part I Xiaoguang Wang President, Purdue Quantitative Finance Club PhD Candidate, Department of Statistics Purdue University Outline Why Technical Analysis ? Philosophy of Technical Analysis Fundamental assumptions Definitions of trend, support and resistance Different Charting styles Reversal and Continuation patterns Principle of Confirmation and Divergence MetaTrader4 introduction Conclusion Question: How to trade successfully in the market? Profits significantly out-beat risk-free rate or the return of market index Statistically stable performance in a long run The worst loss is still affordable Trading formula Expected profits = (Target price entry price)*P{success} (Entry price stop price)*P{failure} Decision making: Determine (Entry price, Target price, Stop Price) such that the expected profits can be maximized. The role of Technical Analysis Help you make the selection among the three choices at any fixed time t: 1.
analysis •Price discounts everything •Price movements are not totally random •The market has Three trends (Dow) •Major trends have three phase (Dow) •Volume must confirm the trend •A trend is assumed to be in effect until it gives definite signals that it has reversed •The market is more psychological than logical
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