Transcription of The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and ...
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The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and ...
International Journal of forecasting 15 (1999) 353 375. / locate / ijforecast The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis a, b Gene Rowe *, George Wright a Institute of Food Research, Norwich Research Park, Colney, Norwich NR4 7 UA, UK. b Strathclyde Graduate Business School, Strathclyde University, 199 Cathedral Street, Glasgow G4 0 QU, UK. Abstract This paper systematically reviews empirical studies looking at the effectiveness of the Delphi technique , and provides a critique of this research. Findings suggest that Delphi groups outperform statistical groups (by 12 studies to two with two ties') and standard interacting groups (by five studies to one with two ties'), although there is no consistent evidence that the technique outperforms other structured group procedures.
354 G.Rowe,G.Wright / International Journal of Forecasting 15 (1999) 353–375 brief review only. The Delphi technique was de- invalid criteria (such as the status of an idea’s
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