Transcription of The Efficient Market Hypothesis and its Critics
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The Efficient Market Hypothesis and its Critics
The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics by Burton G. Malkiel, Princeton University CEPS Working Paper No. 91 April 2003 I wish to thank J. Bradford De Long, Timothy Taylor, and Michael Waldman for their extremely helpful observations. While they may not agree with all of the conclusions in this paper, they have strengthened my arguments in important ways. The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics Burton G. Malkiel Abstract Revolutions often spawn counterrevolutions and the Efficient Market Hypothesis in finance is no exception. The intellectual dominance of the Efficient - Market revolution has more been challenged by economists who stress psychological and behavioral elements of stock-price determination and by econometricians who argue that stock returns are, to a considerable extent, predictable.
stock market in the short run may be a voting mechanism, in the long run it is a weighing mechanism. True value will win out in the end. And before the fact, there is no way in which investors can reliably exploit any anomalies or patterns that might exist. I am
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