THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE …

THE FUTURE OF employment : HOWSUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TOCOMPUTERISATION? Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne September 17, examine how SUSCEPTIBLE jobs are to computerisation. To as-sess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimatethe probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using aGaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine ex-pected impacts of FUTURE computerisation onUSlabour market outcomes,with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs atrisk andthe relationship between an occupation s probability of computerisation,wages and educational attainment. According to our estimates, about 47percent of totalUSemployment is at risk. We further provide evidencethat wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relation-ship with an occupation s probability of :Occupational Choice, Technological Change, Wage Inequal-ity, employment , Skill DemandJELC lassification:E24, J24, J31, J62, O33.

should these technologies materialise. The present study relates to two literatures. First, our analysis builds on the labour economics literature on the task content of employment (Autor, et al., 2003; Goos and Manning, 2007; Autor and Dorn, 2013). Based on defined premises about what computers do, this literature examines the historical im-

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  Future, Employment, Technologies, The future of employment

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