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The Future of Employment - Oxford Martin School

Working paperThe Future of EmploymentCarl Benedikt Frey & Michael OsbornePublished by the Oxford Martin Programmeon Technology and EmploymentTHE Future OF Employment : HOWSUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TOCOMPUTERISATION? Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne September 17, examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To as-sess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimatethe probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, us-ing a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we ex-amine expected impacts of Future computerisation on us labour mar-ket outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number ofjobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation s probabilityof computerisation, wages and educational attainment. Accordingto our estimates, about 47 percent of total us Employment is at further provide evidence that wages and educational attainmentexhibit a strong negative relationship with an occupation s proba-bility of computerisation.

Chinellato, Mark Cummins, Daniel Dewey, David Dorn, Alex Flint, Claudia Goldin, John Muellbauer, Vincent Mueller, Paul Newman, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Anders Sand-berg, Murray Shanahan, and Keith Woolcock for their excellent suggestions.

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THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE …

www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk

THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO COMPUTERISATION?∗ Carl Benedikt Frey†and Michael A. Osborne‡ September 17, 2013. Abstract We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation.

  Future, Employment, The future of employment

THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW ... - University of Oxford

www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk

THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW ... ∗We thank the Oxford University Engineering Sciences Department and the Oxford Mar-tin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology for hosting the “Machines and Employ-ment” Workshop. We are indebted to Stuart Armstrong, Nick Bostrom, Eris Chinellato, Mark ...

  University, Future, Oxford, Oxford university

Innovation: managing risk, not avoiding it

www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk

2 INNOVATION: MANAGING RISK, NOT AVOIDING IT This volume comprises chapters which form the evidence for the Government Chief Scientific Advisor’s

  Innovation, Risks, Avoiding, Managing, Managing risk, Not avoiding

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