Theory of Decision under Uncertainty - …

Theory of Decision under Uncertainty Itzhak Gilboa July 2008. Contents 1 Preface 6. 2 Motivating Examples 9. 3 Free Will and Determinism 11. Can free choice be predicted? .. 11. Is the world deterministic? .. 12. Is free will observable? .. 13. The problem of free will .. 14. A rational illusion .. 19. Free will and the Decision matrix .. 21. 4 The Principle of Indi erence 23. Will a canonical space help? .. 24. The canonical state space .. 24. Di culties with a uniform prior on [0, 1] .. 25. Conclusion .. 26. What's special about the coin? .. 27. Symmetry .. 27. Smooth beliefs .. 28. 5 Relative Frequencies 31. The law of large numbers.

1 Preface The following are lecture notes for a graduate level class in decision under uncertainty. After teaching such classes for many years, it became more di ffi-

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