Transcription of Time series Forecasting using Holt-Winters …
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Time series Forecasting using Holt-Winters …
time series Forecasting using Holt-WintersExponential SmoothingPrajakta S. Kalekar(04329008)Kanwal Rekhi School of Information TechnologyUnder the guidance 6, 2004 AbstractMany industrial time series exhibit seasonal behavior, such as demand for apparel or , seasonal Forecasting problems are of considerable importance. This report con-centrates on the analysis of seasonal time series data using Holt-Winters exponential smoothingmethods. Two models discussed here are theMultiplicative Seasonal Modeland theAdditiveSeasonal IntroductionForecasting involves making projections about futureperformance on the basis of historical and current the result of an action is of consequence, but cannot be known in advance with precision, Forecasting may reduce decision risk by supplying additional information about the possible data have been captured for the time series to be forecasted.
2.4 Stationarity To perform forecasting, most techniques require the stationarity conditions to be satisfied. • First Order Stationary A time series is a first order stationary if expected value of X(t) remains same for all t.
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