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Use of Statistical Forecasting Methods to Improve …
Use of Statistical Forecasting Methods to Improve demand planning Marcel Baumgartner Talk given at the Swiss Days of Statistics 2004 Nestec Aarau, November 18th, 2004 1800 Vevey What is a supply chain ? In an more and more global and speedy economy, supply chain Management (SCM) is becoming a key competitive advantage for many businesses. A typical supply chain looks as below: Procurement demand & Sales &. Suppliers supply Marketing Distributor Consumer planning Flow of Information Flow of Goods Manufacturing Distribution Goal of supply chain Management The goal of supply chain Management is to optimize of the Total supply chain . One strives for an optimum balance between costs, service and time to react to market opportunities. Cost elements: inventory, distribution, raw material, bad goods, .. Service elements: Our products need to be available wherever, however, whenever And in top quality ! Reaction: The food area is heavily driven by promotional activities.
Demand Planning (Sales Forecasting) Demand Planning (DP) is one key element of the Supply Chain. Its objective is to ensure that the best possible estimate of true
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