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USING DATA MINING TO PREDICT SECONDARY SCHOOL …

USING DATA MINING TO PREDICT . SECONDARY SCHOOL STUDENT PERFORMANCE. Paulo Cortez and Alice Silva Dep. Information Systems/Algoritmi R&D Centre University of Minho 4800-058 Guimar aes, PORTUGAL. Email: KEYWORDS for 18 to 24 year olds, while the European Union average Business Intelligence in Education, Classification and value was just 15% (Eurostat 2007). In particular, fail- Regression, Decision Trees, Random Forest ure in the core classes of Mathematics and Portuguese (the native language) is extremely serious, since they ABSTRACT provide fundamental knowledge for the success in the Although the educational level of the Portuguese pop- remaining SCHOOL subjects ( physics or history). ulation has improved in the last decades, the statistics On the other hand, the interest in Business Intelligence keep Portugal at Europe's tail end due to its high stu- (BI)/Data MINING (DM) (Turban et al.)

proach student achievement in secondary education us-ing BI/DM techniques. Recent real-world data (e.g. student grades, demographic, social and school related features) was collected by using school reports and ques-tionnaires. The two core classes (i.e. Mathematics and Portuguese) were modeled under binary/five-level clas-

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