Winter Fuels Outlook

Energy Information Administration | Winter Fuels Outlook October 2021 1 October 2021 Winter Fuels Outlook As we head into the Winter of 2021 22, retail prices for energy are at or near multiyear highs in the United States. The high prices follow changes to energy supply and demand patterns in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We expect that households across the United States will spend more on energy this Winter compared with the past several winters because of these higher energy prices and because we assume a slightly colder Winter than last year in much of the United States. Even when we vary weather expectations, we expect the increase in energy prices as the United States returns to economic growth to mean higher residential energy bills this Winter : We expect that the nearly half of households that heat primarily with natural gas will spend 30% more than they spent last Winter on average 50% more if the Winter is 10% colder-than-average and 22% more if the Winter is 10% warmer-than-average.

weather has caused propane supply issues in past winters, we expect that in a 10% colder -than-forecast scenario, propane retail prices would be about 12% higher and households would consume 12% more propane, leading to expenditures that are 26% higher than in our base case.

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