History — Governance A time of — Trends unprecedented

1 A time of unprecedented change in the transport systemThe Future of MobilityJanuary 2019 History Governance Trends People Future Scenarios for 2040 GeographyPrefaceTransport is critical for the economy. It creates opportunities for growth, generates jobs, and fa-cilitates trade and realises economies of scale. It enhances UK competitiveness by improving con-nectivity across local, regional and national areas. Mobility is central to the whole of society. It allows people to connect with places, and shapes how we live our lives.

2 Social changes in the last twenty years have greatly altered how and why we use the transport system; shifts over the next twenty years will likely be even more significant. Changes such as the growing, ageing population will meet technological advances in electric power, digitalisation and automation. These technologies will bring opportunities, offering fresh innovation to existing needs, as well as radical new approaches. They will also bring challenges, the full potential of technology requires us to consider how users travel behaviour will respond to it, and how all of society and our economy can benefit.

3 To be truly transformational, we need to view transport as a system: to consider it as a whole. The future of transport needs to balance a wide range of considerations. Capacity has a role to play, but it must be linked to making travel more sustainable overall, be this through lower emis-sions, less travel or better linking our journeys to housing and work. A focus on people is central to the future of mobility. Understanding how citizens and businesses make decisions and interact with technology provides an opportunity to place the user at the heart of an integrated system.

4 It holds the key to understanding and optimising the acceptance, adoption and im-pact of new technologies. Behavioural and social science can help us better design our built environment and its transport system around users, and allow technology to improve the lives of individuals and society. This report on the Future of Mobility brings together evidence to inform the UK s response to a range of challenges and opportunities. To be success-ful, industry, science and policy-makers will need to work together, along with citizens. The UK has leading expertise and knowledge that places us at the cutting edge of transport innovation.

5 Through the Industrial Strategy and more broadly, we should grasp the commercial opportunities to fully exploit our potential, creating a transport system that is ready for the future. iThis document is not a statement of government policyDuring this project, we considered evidence from a wide range of sources, through commissioning working papers to organising roundtables that brought together experts to develop and test new ideas. We also developed a number of case studies which highlight specific opportunities for the future of mobility.

6 We considered four scenarios: one in which progress continues incrementally; one where technology is allowed to dominate; one where environmental and social issues take precedence; and a fourth where less data sharing predominates. None of these scenarios is absolute, but choices will need to be made to secure the right mix. We are grateful to the academics and industrialists from across the coun-try who provided the invaluable knowledge and expertise which underpins this Patrick VallanceGovernment Chief Scientific AdviserPrefaceiiThis document is not a statement of government policyMinisterial forewordOver the next two decades, transport technology will change faster than at any time since the Victo-rian era.

7 In place of cars powered by fossil fuels and internal combustion engines, we will have electric and autonomous vehicles. High speed rail will transform journeys between our major cities, and hugely enhance freight capacity. Drones will deliv-er goods to people s houses. And people will con-tinue to produce and use more data than ever be-fore, with profound implications for advent of new technologies is already revolutionising the ways in which we think about travel. We are starting to see the emergence of mobility as a service , bringing together functions such as customer information and payments across different transport modes.

8 In time that should mean a vast expansion of services, more choice for consumers, more reliability and accountability, greener journeys and lower cost. For gov-ernment, it means a once-in-a-generation opportunity to develop a genuinely integrated 21st Century transport system underpinned by digital connectivity and future scenarios developed in this project will be a useful tool to help the Department for transport to anticipate and shape future Trends as new technologies are brought to market. These scenarios should help us en-sure that they deliver positive outcomes for transport work is also an important part of the evidence base we are building for the Future of Mobility Grand Challenge, which feeds into the wider UK In-dustrial Strategy.

9 This means transport will be considered alongside other key areas of planning such as housing, environment and land use and will help define cross-Government solutions to our future mobility is a truism that transport is never just about transport . Given the im-pact of new technologies, more than ever today transport is about creating green, safe, healthy, connected and inclusive communities, and about enhanc-ing economic growth and productivity. iiiThis document is not a statement of government policyWe are very fortunate in this country to have innovative and world-lead-ing transport companies and technology developers.

10 As the market for clean-er, safer and more efficient technology grows, there will be unprecedented opportunities for the government to harness this expertise. This report will help us to grasp those opportunities, with potentially transformational bene-fits for the travelling public and for the UK forewordJesse Norman MPMinister of State for the Department for TransportivThis document is not a statement of government policy 2 Executive summary 2 Our transport system 3 Current Trends 4 Looking to the future 7 Scope of this report 8 Introduction 9 transport today 9 Structure of this report 12 Chapter 1.