CAPRI model documentation 2014

1 1 CAPRI model documentation 2014: Editors1: W. Britz, P. Witzke Table of Contents CAPRI model documentation 2014: 1 Table of Contents 1 0 Preface 5 1 Intr oduc tion (W. Britz ) 5 Structure of the documentation 5 History of CAPR I 5 Overview on CAPRI 7 2 The CAP RI Data Base 10 Production Activities as the core (W. Britz) 11 Technology variants for production activities (W. Britz, M Adenaeuer) 12 The Complete and Consistent Data Base (COCO) for the national scale (P. Witzk e, A. Zintl, M. Kempen) 14 Overvie w and data require ments for the national scale 14 Data Import 16 COCO1: Overlay fro m various sources 24 COCO1 Estimat ion procedure 39 COCO2: Data Preparation 45 COCO2: Estimation procedure 47 COCO2: Final comp letions 49 The Regionalised Data Base (CAPREG, W.)

2 Britz) 51 Data require ments at regional level 51 Data sources at regional level 52 Data availab ility at reg ional level 52 Reading and storing the original REGIO data 52 Methodological proceeding 53 Prices for outputs and inputs 53 Filling gaps in REGIO 54 Mapping crop areas and herd sizes fro m REGIO to COCO defin itions 54 Perfect aggregation between regional and national data for activity levels 55 Outlie r detection for y ields 56 Estimating e xpected yie lds with a Hodric k-Prescott filter 56 Input Allocation (W. Britz) 56 Input allocation e xc luding young animals, fertiliser and feed 57 Input allocation for young animals and the herd flo w model 63 1 The editors and sections authors mentioned so far only indicate the contributors to this update.

3 They are not necessarily the original authors and developers of this material. 2 Input allocation for feed 66 Input allocation for fert ilisers and nutrient balances 68 Input allocation for labour (Markus Ke mpen, Eoghan Garvey) 79 The world Data Base ( M. Aden uer) 93 Biofuels in the global database 94 Policy data 94 Policy data linked to production activities in Europe (P. Witzke, M. Aden uer, T. Jansson) 94 Policy data linked to European and international markets (W. Britz, P. Witzke, B. van Doorslaer) 95 3 Baseline Gener ati on (W.)

4 Britz, P. Witzke) 97 Overview beyond CAPTRD 97 CAPTRD Step 1: Independent, weighted nonlinear least squares 99 CAPTRD Step 2: Consistency constraints in the trend projection tool 100 Constraints relating to ma rket ba lances and yields 102 Constraints relating to land use and cropping area 103 Constraints relating to agricultural production 103 Constraints relating to prices, production values and revenues 105 Constraints relating to consumer behaviour 105 Constraints relating to processed products 106 Constraints relating to bio-fuel p roduction 106 Constraints relating to policy 107 Constraints relating to growth rates 107 CAPTRD Step 2.

5 Integration of specific expert support (Member State level or lower) 108 Integration of bio-fue l informat ion fro m PRIM ES 109 CAPTRD Step 3: Adding comprehensive sets of supports from AGLINK or other agencies111 Integration of e xpert informat ion for long run projections beyond 2020 112 CAPTRD: B reaking down results from Me mber State to regional and farm type level 114 Calibrating the model to the CAPTRD projection 115 Ca librat ing the regional supply models 115 Ca librat ing the global trade model 116 4 Simulati on Scenario model (CAP MOD) 119 Overview of the system (W.)

6 Britz) 119 Module for agricultural supply at regional level (W. Britz) 121 Basic interactions between activities in the supply model 121 Detailed discussion of the equations in the supply model 123 Ca librat ion of the regional p rogra mming models 133 Estimating the supply response of the regional progra mming models 134 Price depending crop yields and input coefficients (W. Britz) 134 Premium module (T. Jansson, W. Britz, J . Helming) 135 Overvie w 135 Basic concept 135 A didactic e xa mp le and further e xplanations 139 Mc Sharry and Agenda reform pre miu ms 140 The MTR-reform and the health check 142 The October 2013 proposal by the Co mmission: Greening top-up 149 Tradable Single Pre miu m Sche me entitle ments 150 Pillar II 153 Co-financing rates, assignment of pre miu ms to pillars, WTO bo xes and PSE-types 153 Mark et module for young animals (W.

7 Britz) 156 3 Mark et module for agricultural outputs (W. Britz, M. Aden uer) 157 Overvie w on the market model 157 The approach of the CAPRI ma rket module 159 Behavioural equations for supply, feed demand and land ma rkets 160 Behavioural equations for final de mand 162 Behavioural equations for the processing industry 163 Trade flows and the Armington assumption 165 Market clea ring conditions 167 Price linkages 167 Bio-fuel module (A. Becke r and M. Aden uer) 169 Endogenous policy instruments in the ma rket mode l 178 Endogenous tariffs under Tariff Rate Quotas, flexible levies and the minimum import price reg ime for fru its and vegetables of the EU 180 Overvie w on a reg ional module inside the ma rket model 186 Basic interaction inside the market module during simu lations 187 Solving the mark et model (W.

8 Britz) 188 Ca librat ion of the system of supply functions 188 Ca librat ion of the final de mand systems 189 Overvie w on the calib ration mechanism 190 Linking the different modules the price mechanism (W. Britz) 192 Price linkage in the sugar sector 193 Sensitivity of the CAPRI model to the Armington substitution elasticities (W. Britz) 193 5 Far m Type Programmi ng model : a FADN-base d approach ( ht, W. Britz) 199 The CAPRI farm type approach 199 Linkage to a SEAMLESS Farm Type Models 205 6 A fe asibility study for the now abandone d recursi ve-dynamic version (W.

9 Britz) 206 7 Post model analysis 209 Dual analysis (T. Jansson, W. Britz) 209 Decomposition of changes in aggregates yields and activity related income indicators (W. Britz) 209 Post model sensitivity analysis with features in the supply model (W. Britz) 211 Methodology 211 Technical imple mentation 211 Welfare analysis (W. Britz, T. Jansson, P. Witzk e) 213 Energy Use in Agriculture (T. Kr nzlein, M. Kempen) 214 Introduction and basics 214 Energy assessment in CAPRI 215 Energy output assessment 221 Analysis of CAPRI energy module results 222 8 Spatial dis-aggregation and link to the bi ophysical model DNDC 225 A spatial land use map (M.

10 Kempen and R. K bl) 225 Spatial ca lculat ion unit (HSMU) 225 Consistent disaggregation of land use 227 Yields, irrigation shares and stocking densities (W. Britz) 234 Linkage to process-based modelling (DNDC) (A. Leip and G. Mulligan) 236 Introduction 236 Input data 238 model setup 245 4 Landscape indicators ( Paracchini) 246 Backg round on indicators for agrarian landscapes 247 Indicators on configuration 249 Indicators on farming orientation/management intensity 254 Indicators on farming and ecosystems 255 References 263 Anne x: Code lists 264 5 0 Pre face documentation is a notoriously neglected area in model development because it evidently competes with model application and model improvement which are usually considered more important by model developers, the people best equipped to report on their work.