U.S. Aviation Weather-Related Crashes and …

1 1 June 2005 NOAA s National weather ServiceVolume 4, Number 2 Mission StatementTo enhance Aviation safety byincreasing the pilot s knowledge ofweather systems and processes andNational weather Service productsand Editor : Michael Melody Magnus Deborah LavineIn this Issue:Operational Useof NWS AviationProductsRecord Wind GustDamages atRaleigh DurhamAirport37 When s the Next Front?Would you like an email alert when anew edition of The Front is published?Write onPage Aviation weather -RelatedCrashes and Fatalities in 2004 John M. Jarboe, Senior Instructor, NWS Office at the FAA AcademyIn 2004, Weather-Related airplaneaccidents led to 240 fatalities in theUnited States ( ) and Puerto vast majority of these crasheswere incurred by General Aviation (GA) pilots flying in Instrument Me-teorological Conditions (IMC).

2 TheGA community flies under FederalAviation Regulation (FAR) Part segment of the pilot com-munity frequently uses the services ofFederal Aviation Administration(FAA) Automated Flight Service Sta-tions (AFSS) to obtain preflightweather briefings and en routeweather updates. The NationalWeather Service (NWS) Office at theFAA Academy is responsible forweather training, certifying, and evalu-ating AFSS employees. Reducingaviation Weather-Related fatalities in is a primary goal of the NWSand of this office. To better under-stand and to help meet this goal, thenumber of Aviation weather relatedfatalities that occur each year and un-der what circumstances was information helps the NWS teamat the Academy highlight IMC issuesto new National TransportationSafety Board s (NTSB) website, ,was searched for all fatal accidents for2004 to determine if weather was atleast a contributing factor in the on a yes answer to all thefollowing conditions, would this crashhave occurred if the weather was: windcalm; sky clear; visibility unlimited; nothunderstorms; no icing; no turbulence;no low-level wind shear; and the den-sity altitude not above field elevation?

3 If the answerswere yes, then thecrash was not in-cluded in these followingare some statisticsand conclusionsfrom this study ofthe NTSB REGI ONALASK AREGIONSOUTHERNREGIONEASTERNREGIONPACIFI CREGION2ybdeknaRsetatS01poTdetaleR-rehta eWforebmuN4002nishtaeDnoitaivAknaRetatSs ehsarCshtaeD1XT11822OM3 813AC8 714LF8 315AG4 216AV2 217OC6 118CS4 119NM5 0101KA59noitaivAdetaleR-rehtaeW4002nisht aeDdnasehsarCnoitarepOfoepyTybfoepyTnoit arepOsehsarCshtaeD121traPRAF deludehcSsenilriA131531traPRAF,ixaTriAre tummoC219219traPRAF noitaivAlareneG89891slatoT111042noitaivA detaleR-rehtaeW4002nishtaeDdnasehsarCyro getaCgniylFybgniylFyrogetaCsehsarCshtaeD CMI79212 CMV4182slatoT111042 Fatalities by NWS Region* Southern Region totals include onecrash causing a fatality in Puerto Rico.

4 ** Pacific Region totals only includeflights near the Hawaiian Islands eventhough the Region includes many is-lands spread out over vast areas ofthe Pacific Ocean. The actual PacificRegion totals are probably higher thanreported with Most FatalitiesStates With No FatalitiesFifteen states did not have a singleaviation Weather-Related fatality in 2004:DE, IA, IL, IN, NE, LA, MD, MS,NJ, NM, OK, RI, SD, UT and by OperationApproximately 83% of the avia-tion Weather-Related fatalities in 2004occurred during FAR Part 91 GeneralAviation (GA) 91 operations include flightsby owners or operators of category could include operationsby a large corporation flying it s execu-tives in a Boeing 747.

5 Such a flightwould be a Part 91 GA operation be-cause it is a privately owned aircraftthat does not offer seats for sale tothe public or operate as an on-de-mand air taxi 135 operations are commuterairlines and on-demand air taxi opera-tions. Part 121 operations are sched-uled airlines and larger Aviation is a term fre-quently misused to describe airlineflights. Commercials operations areflights in which the pilot may get paidto fly and is not synonymous with air-line operations. Commercial flightscould be conducted under FAR Part91, 135 or in IMCA pproximately 88% of aviationweather- related fatalities in 2004 werecaused by operations in IMC.

6 Any-time an aircraft is operating in theclouds, it is classified as in example, if an airport at anelevation of 1,000 Mean Sea Level(MSL) is reporting an overcast ceiling4,000 foot Above Ground Level, theweather condition is VFR. However,if a pilot departs that airport andclimbs to 5,000 feet MSL, he willenter the base of the clouds and bein NWS can help reduce avia-tion- related fatalities by educating Part91 GA pilots about the dangers ofoperating in IMC, and how goodweather information and briefings areessential to reducing this Relatedby Month October, 2004 had the greatestnumber of Aviation weather -relatedfatalities. This statistic may reflectwidespread IFR conditions that, onaverage, become much more frequentstarting in October, after a relativelull from about April *nrehtuoS0336nretsaE3235nretseW7274aksal A59**cificaP19latoT1110423noitaivAdetale R-rehtaeWshtaeDdnasehsarChtnoMybdeknaR40 02nihtnoMsehsarCshtaeDtcO7115luJ2182nuJ2 142naJ1122guA0112ceD0171voN6 61yaM8 41beF931raM4 31peS621rpA69slatoT111042 Operational Use of NWSA viation ProductsJohn M.

7 Jarboe, Marco A. Bohorquez, Cyndie AbelmanNational weather Service, FAA AcademyFigure 1: Route of FlightConclusionsThis study points toward IMC asan important risk factor, highlights thedanger of IMC for GA, and showsNWS forecasters the importance ofaccurate article contained only infor-mation about fatal weather -relatedcrashes. Many of the Crashes not in-cluded in this study involved injuriesto people that survived. Almost allof these fatal Crashes totally destroyedthe aircraft involved and many of thecrashes damaged property on , J. M., September 2004,PowerPoint Presentation at Western/Pacific/Alaska Regional AviationWorkshop, Seattle, WAJarboe, J M, January 2005.

8 Na-tional weather Service AviationWeather Clinic for Flight Instructors4In 2004, there were 111 Weather-Related airplane Crashes resulting in 240fatalities in the United States andPuerto 88 percent ofthe Aviation Weather-Related fatali-ties can be attributed to Opera-tions in Instrument Meteorologi-cal Conditions (IMC).This article examines a typicalflight, focusing on the use of NWSdata and forecasts to avoid a contin-ued Visual Flight Rules (VFR) flightinto VFR flight illustrated belowwas proposed for May 10, 2005, de-parting at 1930Z from Palm SpringsInternational Airport (PSP), CA, toBakersfield (BFL), CA. The route offlight visually follows Interstate High-way 10 (I-10) to San there the route follows I-15 through the mountain pass to geton the north side of the San GabrielMountains, proceeding over toPalmdale.

9 The remainder of the routepasses over the Quail Lake airport andfollows I-5 through the Tejon Pass(elevation 4,239 MSL) into the SanJoaquin Valley, landing at total distance is 171 NM. (SeeFigure 1: Route of Flight)The proposed flight uses a Cessna172 Skyhawk flying at 6,500 feet meansea level (MSL) with an average groundspeed of 111 knots. The estimated timeen route is one hour, 30 minutes witha 15 gallon fuel-burn out of the 40gallons on flying at 6,500 MSL alongthis route, the aircraft will be 1,500 to5,000 feet above ground level (AGL);however, between Palm Springs andBanning (BNG), there is a 11,499 feetMSL mountain peak 10 NM north inthe San Gorgonio Wilderness area anda 10,834 feet MSL mountain peak 7NM to the south in the San Jacinto4 The statistics show thatoperations in IMC are thecause of about 88 percent ofthe Aviation weather -relatedfatalitiess in Area.

10 These mountainpeaks will extend 4,000 to 5,000 feetabove the aircraft s altitude as it passesthis the flight proceeds northwardalong I-15 from San Bernardino to thenorth side of the San Gabriel Moun-tains, the aircraft will cross the pass3,500 feet below nearby , as the aircraft pro-ceeds from Quail Lake Airportthrough the Tejon Pass (4,239 MSL)above I-5, the aircraft will be 2,200feet AGL and 1,540 feet below themountain peak located just 4 NMsouthwest of the safely fly this route VFR, a pi-lot should closely examine NWS ceil-ing and visibility observations a WeatherBriefingA pilot can call 1-800-WX-BRIEF anywhere in the United Statesand obtain a verbal briefing from aPilot weather Briefer at a Flight Ser-vice Station.